2022 Midterm Election Guide (With Predictions!), Senate Edition
A total of 35 seats are up for grabs in the 50-50 United States Senate, 21 currently held by Republicans and 14 held by Democrats
Senate Races:
Alabama (open seat, currently held by a Republican)
Republican Katie Britt
Democrat Will Boyd
PREDICTION - Britt will win with close to 70% of the vote. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Alaska (Republican incumbent)
Republican Lisa Murkowski
Other Republican Kelly Tshibaka
Democrat Pat Chesbro
PREDICTION - Ranked-choice voting makes this a bit tricky to predict, but it’s definitely going to be one of the Republican ladies. Murkowski probably beats Tshibaka by about 55-45 in the final round. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Arizona (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Blake Masters
Democrat Mark Kelly
PREDICTION - Kari Lake has coattails. Democrat down. Masters wins 52-48. REPUBLICAN GAIN
Arkansas (Republican incumbent)
Republican John Boozman
Democrat Natalie James
PREDICTION - Boozman by 30+ points. REPUBLICAN HOLD
California (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Mark Meuser
Democrat Alex Padilla
PREDICTION - It’s California. Padilla 59-41. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Colorado (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Joe O'Dea
Democrat Michael Bennet
PREDICTION - O’Dea is trying to appeal to moderates in this Blue state, but in the process has turned off some conservatives. Bennet by five or six points. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Connecticut (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Leora Levy
Democrat Richard Blumenthal
PREDICTION - Blumenthal will win, but only by single digits. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Florida (Republican incumbent)
Republican Marco Rubio
Democrat Val Demings
PREDICTION - Demings is keeping it competitive, but she can’t win. Rubio by six or seven. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Georgia (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Herschel Walker
Democrat Raphael Warnock
PREDICTION - The seething over this one will be a salt-miner’s dream. Walker by four. REPUBLICAN GAIN
Hawaii (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Bob McDermott
Democrat Brian Schatz
PREDICTION - Schatz with well over 60% of the vote. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Idaho (Republican incumbent)
Republican Mike Crapo
Democrat David Roth
PREDICTION - Crapo may surpass 70% of the vote. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Illinois (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Kathy Salvi
Democrat Tammy Duckworth
PREDICTION - A stronger candidate may have given Duckworth a competitive race. She still won’t hit 60%. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Indiana (Republican incumbent)
Republican Todd Young
Democrat Thomas McDermott Jr.
PREDICTION - Young by about 12 points. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Iowa (Republican incumbent)
Republican Chuck Grassley
Democrat Michael Franken
PREDICTION - The 89-year-old Grassley is seeking an 8th term in the Senate. He’ll get it, and become president pro tempore next year. Call it ten points, give or take. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Kansas (Republican incumbent)
Republican Jerry Moran
Democrat Mark Holland
PREDICTION - Moran by 20. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Kentucky (Republican incumbent)
Republican Rand Paul
Democrat Charles Booker
PREDICTION - Rand Paul will be a very powerful man over the next two years. I suspect the media and the Democrats will be displeased. Paul by 18. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Louisiana (Republican incumbent)
Republican John Kennedy
Democrat Gary Chambers
Other Democrat Luke Mixon
And Another Democrat Syrita Steib
PREDICTION - Kennedy will pull in around 60% in a multi-candidate field. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Maryland (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Chris Chaffee
Democrat Chris Van Hollen
PREDICTION - Van Hollen will probably break 60%. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Missouri (open seat, currently held by a Republican)
Republican Eric Schmitt
Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine
PREDICTION - Schmitt by 14. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Nevada (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Adam Laxalt
Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto
PREDICTION - Polls suggest Laxalt is finishing strong. With Hispanics flocking to the GOP this year in possibly unprecedented numbers, he looks in control of this race. He’ll win by four or five. REPUBLICAN GAIN
New Hampshire (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Don Bolduc
Democrat Maggie Hassan
PREDICTION - Hassan led in the polls the entire race until the final two weeks. Total implosion. Bolduc by two. REPUBLICAN GAIN
New York (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Joe Pinion
Democrat Chuck Schumer (SENATE MAJORITY LEADER)
PREDICTION - Chuck by 16. DEMOCRAT HOLD
North Carolina (open seat, currently held by a Republican)
Republican Ted Budd
Democrat Cheri Beasley
PREDICTION - Budd has maintained a small but consistent lead in the polling. He should win by about four. REPUBLICAN HOLD
North Dakota (Republican incumbent)
Republican John Hoeven
Democrat Katrina Christiansen
PREDICTION - Hoeven will get close to 80% of the vote. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Ohio (open seat, currently held by a Republican)
Republican J. D. Vance
Democrat Tim Ryan
PREDICTION - The Democrat Ryan has run a really dirty campaign in a state that is rapidly moving into the safe column for the GOP. Vance by six. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Oklahoma (regular - Republican incumbent)
Republican James Lankford
Democrat Madison Horn
PREDICTION - Lankford should win by around 20. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Oklahoma (special - open seat, currently held by a Republican)
Republican Markwayne Mullin
Democrat Kendra Horn
PREDICTION - Mullin by about 15. (Oklahoma Horns 0-for-2.) REPUBLICAN HOLD
Oregon (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Jo Rae Perkins
Democrat Ron Wyden
PREDICTION - Upon doing some candidate research, it seems Perkins is a little bit too “red-pilled” for a state like Oregon. Wyden by 14. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Pennsylvania (open seat, currently held by a Republican)
Republican Mehmet Oz
Democrat John Fetterman
PREDICTION - After that debate, Oz should definitely win this one. Unless they are still counting “votes” in Philadelphia for several days after Election Day…which is actually a real possibility. But for the sake of the country, let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Oz by two. REPUBLICAN HOLD
South Carolina (Republican incumbent)
Republican Tim Scott
Democrat Krystle Matthews
PREDICTION - Search for “Krystle Matthews Project Veritas” and then watch. LOL. Scott by 20. REPUBLICAN HOLD
South Dakota (Republican incumbent)
Republican John Thune
Democrat Brian Bengs
PREDICTION - Thune by about 30 points. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Utah (Republican incumbent)
Republican Mike Lee
“Independent” Evan McMullin
PREDICTION - McMullin isn’t really “Independent” so much as he’s “anti-Republican”, or perhaps just “CIA”. Lee by 10. REPUBLICAN HOLD
Vermont (open seat, currently held by a Democrat)
Republican Gerald Malloy
Democrat Peter Welch
PREDICTION - Welch by 30. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Washington (Democrat incumbent)
Republican Tiffany Smiley
Democrat Patty Murray
PREDICTION - This is the Senate race that could shock a lot of people if there is a true Red Tsunami. Murray, a five-term incumbent, is struggling to get to 50% in the polls. Smiley is a young, charismatic candidate. But I guess the cynic in me just assumes King County will come through with some exciting “recounts” in a close election (ask this guy). Murray by two. DEMOCRAT HOLD
Wisconsin (Republican incumbent)
Republican Ron Johnson
Democrat Mandela Barnes
PREDICTION - Another race in which the reaction from Twitter leftists should be rather amusing. Johnson by three. REPUBLICAN HOLD
FINAL RESULT: No Republican-held seats are taken by the Democrats. Four Democrat incumbents fall to Republican challengers, for a net of +4 for the GOP. The Senate starting in 2023 will be controlled by the Republicans by a 54-46 margin (if you include the two “independents” - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - who caucus with the Democrats).
(Election Guides for the Gubernatorial and House races will be coming soon!)